Betting on Wrestling Responsibly

Whether you are new to sports betting or a veteran gambler, the first thought that goes through your mind when it comes to betting on wrestling is “this is going to be easy”.

Actually the first thought is usually “Wait…you can bet on a predetermined event?”.

But your second thought will no doubt be “this is going to be easy”.

The reason for that is that the endings of matches are scripted in advance, and there are no adverse situations that can affect the outcome.

In the NFL, if Josh Allen has a bad day, the entire Buffalo Bills offense suffer. In WWE, if CM Punk isn’t feeling it and has a bad match, that doesn’t affect whether he wins or loses.

If the referee makes a bad call in an NFL game, that can drastically affect the point spread. If the referee makes a mistake in WWE, a rare occurrence, they still generally find a way to stick with the script to get the desired outcome of the match, such as the spot involving Tiffany and Nia Jax in October 2025.

However, betting on wrestling is not easy, even if you are coming in armed with your Wrestling Observer subscription. There are a lot of traps you can fall into, which I am going to cover here, While I want you to have fun betting on wrestling, I want to make sure that I am promoting responsible play as it is too easy to get carried away betting on wrestling with your own fantasy booking, and make avoidable mistakes.

These are going to be specific to wrestling itself, and not covering general gambling responsibility topics such as bankroll management.

#1: Consider Factors Outside the “Bubble”

Wrestling has a very odd bubble attached to it, and it’s easy to not think outside of the bubble. There are numerous outside factors which can affect results in wrestling.

Some wrestling upsets have occurred simply due to prior commitments that a wrestler has. It may be a movie deal so they want them to lose the title, or they may be featuring on a magazine cover in the future so the company wants them to hold the title so they can showcase it.

These people exist outside of the wrestling bubble. If a wrestler has something going on in the entertainment world, the company they work for is going to want to put them in the best light possible.

#2: Consider Factors Inside the “Bubble”

One thing you need to remember is wrestling is a REALLY WEIRD business at times. The decisions we see made in the sports world are nothing compared to the decisions made in the wrestling world.

One of the best examples of this is at Wrestlemania 31. Sting had recently signed with WWE, and was squaring off against Triple H. Triple H was +400 odds, and ended up winning in the 15th biggest upset in Wrestlemania history.

Many were stunned that Sting was brought to WWE for the first time ever, only to lose his first match.

However if you paid attention to life within the wrestling bubble, you would realzie that this wasn’t Sting vs HHH; this was WCW vs WWE. And do you really think Vince McMahon of all people, was going to have WWE lose to WCW?

Always consider the person who is actually booking these matches, their favourites, their booking tropes (Dusty finish anyone?) and what sort of outcome you would expect from them.

#3: Don’t Believe the Last Day Line Jumps

There are so many people out there who believe that they should “follow the money”. By this, I mean that hours before the event begins, the match outcomes are decided, and the people who know the results bet on the outcomes, affecting the odds tremendously.

These last day jumps do happen. You will often see a wrestler jump from a +200 underdog to a -300 favourite, but these line jumps have no direct correlation in regard to the actual outcome of the matches.

Instead, this is a case of people betting at the last minute. Wrestling does not have a lot of money bet on it, so any slight action can increase the volatility of the lines.

#4: Pay Attention to Hometowns

One thing you should look up prior to betting on a match is where the wrestlers are from, and then look at the history of not just the company, but that person’s record in their hometown.

It’s going back a few years; but when Vince McMahon was booking WWE, it was a common practise to bet against the hometown hero. In theory, he liked to book the hometown hero to lose and get humiliated with the traditional thinking that people would pay more to see them get their revenge next time.

However on the flip side, betting hometown heroes is often the way to go. Never bet against Britt Baker in Pittsburgh, for example. Or look at matches where the outcome doesn’t really matter and bet the hometown hero there. A good example of that would be Carmella winning the Women’s Battle Royal at Wrestlemania 35.

That was the second biggest upset in wrestling history at +1500 odds, but she was a hometown hero, and also got to hug her father at ringside after the match.

#5 Study the Data

We have pages and pages listing past betting upsets. Each one doesn’t just list the upset, but it explains why it happened. Often it’s just a random outcome, but there can be a lot of reasons for specific upsets.

Look for consistency. I have a running joke on here to “always bet on Charlotte” or “Always bet on The Miz” but there is a reason for that; there are consistent performers in wrestling that the companies will always rely on to get wins.

Think of “Wrestlemania Moments” as well. It doesn’t have to take place at Wrestlemania, but WWE likes to have events happen which will be water cooler talk the next day. Goldberg and the manner in which he defeated Brock Lesnar at Survivor Series 2016, for example. Always consider “Money in the Bank” and how that can be a factor, such as Bianca Belair versus Asuka and Charlotte in 2023.

However if I were to give you the most important advice for betting wrestling responsibly it would be – don’t get too upset when things don’t go your way. While referees, weather and bad performances cannot affect outcomes, sometimes bad decisions do. There have been numerous times in wrestling where a big favourite has lost and it’s something that years later in retrospect, one cannot explain.

You just have to roll with the punches.

Or bodyslams, as it were.

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Current Wrestling Betting Odds:

Event:	Match:	Where To Bet:
Wrestlemania	All the matches	BetOnline
Elimination Chamber	All the matches	BetOnline
AEW Revolution	Both Rumbles	BetOnline