A List of Every AEW Betting Upset Ever

avatar Written By Graeme on August 16, 2021  

When it comes to betting upsets articles for WWE, I cover each PPV separately.

Due to its relative infancy, it doesn’t make sense just yet to break up all the AEW betting upsets by PPV.

So instead I thought I would write this article covering every AEW Betting Upset ever.

Couple of notes:

This list is updated following each PPV, usually the end of the month of said PPV.

I am only covering actual PPVs in here. Not any Dynamite, Rampage, Fyter Fest etc betting upsets.

I will provide special attention to any betting upsets +200 and above. +200 would mean betting $100 for a profit of $200, FYI.

Before we get to that, here is a list of betting upsets that didn’t quite make the top list – these are any that were even money or above do in a few cases despite the odds, they were the favourites.

  • +100: Chris Jericho def. Kenny Omega (DoN 2019)
  • +100: MJF will show up (All Out 2022)
  • +100: Orange Cassidy def. Chris Jericho (All Out 2020)
  • +105: Britt Baker def. Nyla Rose & Kyle Ray (DoN 2019)
  • +108: Elite & Matt def. Inner Circle (DoN 2020)
  • +115: Darby Allin def. Cody (Full Gear 2020)
  • +120: Orange Cassidy wins Battle Royal (DoN 2023)
  • +120: FTR def. Young Bucks (All In 2023)
  • +120: Blackpool Combat Club def. The Elite (DoN 2023)
  • +120: Best Friends def. Angelico/Jack Evans (DoN 2019)
  • +120: Team Shida def. Team Kong (DoN 2019)
  • +120: Orange Cassidy def. Jon Moxley (Full Gear 2023)
  • +120: Miro & Kip def. Best Friends (Revolution 2021)
  • +125: Saraya def. Shida, Britt, Toni (All In 2023)
  • +125: Adam Page def. Pac (Full Gear 2019)
  • +125: Cody def. Lance Archer (DoN 2020)
  • +125: Pac & Cody def. Malakai Black & Andrade (Full Gear 2021)
  • +130: Leyla Hirsch def. Kris Statlander (Revolution 2022)
  • +130: House of Black def. The Elite (Revolution 2023)
  • +130: Christian Cage def. Jungle Boy (All Out 2022)
  • +134: Lucha Brothers def. Young Bucks (All Out 2021)
  • +135: Cody def. Anthony Ogogo (DoN 2021)
  • +140: Hikaru Shida def. Nyla Rose (DoN 2020)
  • +150: Chris Jericho def. Sammy Guevara (Grand Slam 2023)
  • +150: Kip Sabian def. Sammy Guevera (DoN 2019)
  • +150: Samoa Joe defeats MJF (Worlds End 2023)
  • +150: The Elite def. BCC (Forbidden Door 2)
  • +160: Pac def. Kenny Omega (All Out 2019)
  • +165: The Young Bucks def. the Luchas Bros (DoN 2019)
  • +165: MJF & Samoa Joe def The Gunns (Full Gear 2023)
  • +170: Kenny Omega & Adam Page def. The Young Bucks (Revolution 2020)
  • +170: The Hardys def. The Young Bucks (Double or Nothing 2022)
  • +175: Lance Archer wins Casino Battle Royale (All Out 2020)
  • +175: Powerhouse Hobbs def. Ricky Starks (All Out 2022)
  • +180: Chris Jericho def. Bryan Danielson (All Out 2022)
  • +180: MJF & Cole def. Aussie Open (All In 2023)
  • +190: Cody def. Shawn Spears (All Out 2019)
  • +200: Christian & Jurassic Express def Superkliq (Full Gear 2021)
  • +200: Jon Moxley def. Bryan Danielson (Grand Slam 2022)
  • +200: Mogul Embassy def Roppongi Vice (Forbidden Door 2023)
  • +220: Swerve def Hangman Page (Full Gear 2023)

Here is every AEW betting upset above +220:

#14 – Tie: +225 Best Friends, Penta, Eddie def BCC, Santana, Ortiz

All In 2023

In an incredible Stadium Stampede match, the faces got the win.

It was a bit of a surprise to see the established Blackpool Combat Club lose, but it was all part of the Mox/Orange Cassidy story.

#14 – Tie: +225 – Jericho Appreciation Society defeats Mox, Danielson, Eddie, Santana & Ortiz

Double or Nothing 2022

I’m happy to say I tipped this one correctly. Honestly wasn’t that big a surprise to me. Jericho Appreciation Society is a new stable and the others are just all thrown together for the most part. I felt it was more important for the Jericho Appreciation Society to get the win and show their strength.

#14- Tie: +225 – Dr. Britt Baker, D.M.D. defeats Thunder Rosa

(Revolution 2022)

The writing was on the wall as soon as Britt Baker won the AEW Women’s World Championship – she would lose it eventually to Thunder Rosa.

With the two clashing at AEW Revolution, many expected this to be the title change. I didn’t think so and I actually bet on Britt Baker for the upset victory.

My reasoning for it was incorrect. Initially, I thought it would be due to her independent commitments, then I thought it would be because of a potential injury.

In reality, Revolution was a STACKED show and they simply decided to hold off on the title change until a couple of weeks later so it wouldn’t get lost in the shuffle.

They saved it for St. Patrick’s Day Slam, which was in her adopted hometown. That is something to remember – at least when it comes to AEW – it’s always worth checking out the upcoming schedule and planning around that.

#14 – Tie: +225 – Scorpio Sky wins Face of the Revolution Ladder Match

(Revolution 2021)

Cody was the favourite at +175. Scorpio Sky was tied with the “Mystery Participant”, who would turn out to be Ethan Page at +225 odds as the 2nd favourite.

In hindsight – this was actually a very obvious one. Scorpio was on the Dynamite just preceding this on commentary and was very heelish. It was clear a turn was underway and also a potential push based on the focus they gave him.

Scorpio won after attacking Cody with a chair.

#13: +250 – Bullet Club Gold & Takeshita def. The Golden Elite

All In 2023

Everyone expected The Golden Elite to win this one at -400 favourites. However in hindsight, it’s one where the betting upset was obvious.

Kenny is at the tail end of his career and wants to make stars. Takeshita is that star and giving him the pin on the biggest stage of them all is huge. Plus it really helps the long-term stable of Bullet Club Gold to get the win.

Takeshita would pin Kenny in front of the biggest paid attendance crowd in wrestling history, in a star making performance.

#12: +275 – Brian Cage wins Casino Ladder Match

(Double or Nothing 2020)

Darby Allin was the favourite in this one at +175 odds.

This one actually wasn’t Brian Cage as the +275 second favourite but the “mystery participant”.

It was neat to see the “mystery participant” winning a match like this as it opens up that happening in future matches.

Moxley was the champion at the time, so it was a bit of a surprise with people thinking Darby would win to make a face vs face match. Especially with Darby as a rising star and Mox being Mox. Booking wise, it just didn’t make the most sense.

Both Darby and Scorpio were the only two to have video packages really hyping them going into the ladder match so that was probably some of the reasoning that Darby was the favourite. Plus even back then, he had future main eventer and world champion all over him.

AEW pulled off the surprise with the debuting Brian Cage crushing everyone to win the match,

#11 – Tie: +300 – Takeshita def. Kenny Omega

(All Out 2023

The Takeshita push continues. A week after he got the pin on Kenny at All In, he got this monster victory over Kenny.

Wrestling lore would make this one an upset with people expecting Kenny to “get his win back”. But Kenny isn’t one of those greedy main eventers and put over Takeshita in a big way.

#11 – Tie: +300 – Team Dustin def Dark Order

(All Out 2020)

With Brodie Lee as the leader of the Dark Order, and them being an actual stable, many expected them to pull off the victory.

AEW had other plans as the team of Dustin Rhodes, QT Marshall, Matt Cardona and Scorpio Sky were able to pull off the victory.

When I wrote about this one, I actually tipped Team Dustin due to the potential Scorpio Sky push. I felt this would be a good spot to showcase him and have him go over.

His team won although he didn’t get the pin. This ended being the beginning of the Colt Cabana storyline and Brodie revealing his true colours to him.

#10: +325 – Danielson defeats Okada

Forbidden Door 2023

In what was quite the surprise, Kazuchika Okada lost in the main event of Forbidden Door II via submission to Bryan Danielson. This was quite the upset especially due to the finish, as Okada had only been submitted once before that since he became a star, which was against Nakamura in 2015.

#9: +338 – Pac wins All-Atlantic Title

Forbidden Door 2022

Miro was a heavy favourite for this one at 1.53 odds, followed by Malakai Black at +235 then Pac at +330 and Clark at +650. I tipped this one correctly, and actually said I felt Pac would win although I took the prop bet of “Miro = No” instead.

Commentary had actually been hyping Pac up I had noticed prior to the show, as someone who could win the belt and travel the globe. With Pac also traveling back to the UK a lot, I felt it was the perfect decision for him to win the belt. One thing AEW wanted to showcase was the champion being able to travel to all over the world and wrestle and defend in different promotions, so that seemed like the one that would make the most sense. I just didn’t see Miro winning it then heading over to various indy promotions across Europe to wrestle.

#8: +450 – Chris Jericho wins the ROH World Championship

(Dynamite Grand Slam 2022)

Jericho defeated the -800 Claudio Castagnoli in one of the biggest upsets in AEW history.

The funny thing is in retrospect, it really was not a surprise. Of course, Jericho would add this to his title reign. There was also the theory immediately following it that ROH were going to get a TV deal, and having Jericho as champion would help that.

I correctly tipped this upset although I wasn’t fully on board with it. It just felt like a good spot for Jericho to get the win. He’s one of their biggest stars, and with a lot of people critical or non-interested in ROH, I felt Jericho having the belt would be great for him and his next character arc.

#5 – Tie: +500 – Toni Storm defeats Jamie Hayter

Double Or Nothing 2023

This was one that thankfully I tipped, due to a real world situation.

Jamie Hayter had just recently won the title, and her reign seemed far from over. However she had apparently injured her shoulder, and it was serious.

Knowing that AEW probably wouldn’t vacate the title or go the interim title route due to negative fan feedback previously, I recommended a bet on Toni Storm.

That proved to be the case. With an interference loaded “match”, Toni Storm defeated Jamie Hayter to win the belt.

#5 – Tie: +500 – Ruby Soho wins Casino Battle Royale

(All Out 2021)

One of the best moments in the history of AEW. As we got to the “Joker” entrant, who was +500 to win the entire Battle Royal, the fans started chanting “RUBY SOHO” loud as can be. If you were in the arena, you wouldn’t have even heard her theme music as it was so freaking loud!!!

An incredible moment just having Ruby as the Joker and All Elite, and an even better moment as Ruby Soho won the Casino Battle Royale. Even if it means we’re going to have that song stuck in our heads for all eternity.

#5 – Tie: +500 – Adam Page wins Casino Battle Royale

(Double or Nothing 2019)

So I wasn’t exactly sure where to put this one as there was a little twist on the day of the show.

All week long, Adam Page was the favourite to win the inaugural Casino Battle Royal at +250 odds.

Then the morning of the PPV, the online sportsbooks added Jon Moxley to the betting odds. Moxley slotted in at a +600 2nd favourite along with MJF.

Within an hour, money came in fast and furious on Moxley with many expecting him to make his debut at the show, win the Battle Royale, and face the winner of Jericho vs Omega which was happening later.

This pushed Moxley to a heavy favourite and Adam Page dropped to +500 odds a few hours before the show began. As it is Mox DID debut on the show but it was after the main event was over. Page won the Battle Royale, defeating 2nd favourite MJF last.

#3 – Tie: +600 – Jungle Boy wins Casino Battle Royal

(Double or Nothing 2021)

Christian had recently joined the company, had got into an altercation with Kenny Omega and appeared to be the favourite to win the title shot.

If you look at the Bleacher Report predictions for this show, 5 of the 8 picked Christian to win it. (With some lunatic picking Samoa Joe)

I correctly tipped Jungle Boy to pull off the upset here at this price. It was a case of AEW putting over the young talent, as opposed to the old veteran.

What a crazy concept.

It was also smart booking in regards to reaction as many fans just weren’t too happy at a veteran like Christian coming in and getting immediately pushed into the title picture.

That was a bit too “TNA Impact” for most AEW fan’s liking.

#3 – Tie +600: Samoa Joe Wins the TNT Championship

(Full Gear 2022)

Wardlow was defending the TNT Championship in a 3 way match at AEW Full Gear. Wardlow was a hefty -180 favourite, with Powerhouse Hobbs at +175 and Samoa Joe at +600.

In my betting tips, I actually threw out the possibility of a title change with Joe winning. I just decided against betting on it because it felt very thrown together and last moment. Samoa Joe had literally just turned on Wardlow.

In hindsight, it does seem like one you can justify more. Wardlow had been ice cold recently, and a title change would help stir things up. It was still quite a bit of a surprise though.

Tie – #1: +700 Fenix defeats Jon Moxley (2023)

(Grand Slam 2023)

This was the match on AEW Dynamite Grand Slam where Jon Moxley experienced a concussion early in the match.

He ended up unable to perform, and called an audible which resulted in Fenix winning the championship.

An unfortunate incident for everyone involved – unless you took a bet on Fenix winning!

#1 – Tie: +700 Death Triangle defeats The Elite (2022)

(Full Gear 2022)

Betting on AEW is usually very easy as Tony Khan’s booking style is very predictable.

Except when it isn’t!

Tonys mentality is usually “plans don’t change, pal”. If he has plans and it gets interrupted due to an injury or something, that storyline goes on a holding pattern until they can get back on track. The Elite had one the new trios championships before being suspended. The expectation was as soon as they returned, Tony would right the ship and get the belts back on The Elite.

Well he strayed from that – granted it was due to the genius idea of setting up a Best of 7 instead. And in doing so, he created the biggest betting upset in the history of All Elite Wrestling!

While we aren’t listing it as it wasn’t on a PPV – I did want to note that the third biggest upset in AEW history was at Fyter Fest 2020, when The Butcher and the Blade defeated The Young Bucks. Penelope Ford defeating Anna Jay at AEW Grand Slam at +225 also was an upset, as was Men of the Year at +150 at AEW Grand Slam.

Current Wrestling Betting Odds:

Event:Match:Where To Bet:
WrestlemaniaAll the matchesBetOnline
Elimination ChamberAll the matchesBetOnline
AEW RevolutionBoth RumblesBetOnline