A List of Every AEW Betting Upset Ever

avatar Written By Graeme on August 16, 2021  


When it comes to betting upsets articles for WWE, I cover each PPV separately.

Due to its relative infancy, it doesn’t make sense just yet to break up all the AEW betting upsets by PPV.

So instead I thought I would write this article covering every AEW Betting Upset ever.

Couple of notes:

This list is updated following each PPV, usually the end of the month of said PPV.

I am only covering actual PPVs in here. Not any Dynamite, Rampage, Fyter Fest etc betting upsets.

I will provide special attention to any betting upsets +200 and above. +200 would mean betting $100 for a profit of $200, FYI.

Before we get to that, here is a list of betting upsets that didn’t quite make the top list – these are any that were even money or above do in a few cases despite the odds, they were the favourites.

  • +100: Chris Jericho def. Kenny Omega (DoN 2019)
  • +100: Orange Cassidy def. Chris Jericho (All Out 2020)
  • +105: Britt Baker def. Nyla Rose & Kyle Ray (DoN 2019)
  • +108: Elite & Matt def. Inner Circle (DoN 2020)
  • +115: Darby Allin def. Cody (Full Gear 2020)
  • +120: Best Friends def. Angelico/Jack Evans (DoN 2019)
  • +120: Team Shida def. Team Kong (DoN 2019)
  • +120: Miro & Kip def. Best Friends (Revolution 2021)
  • +125: Adam Page def. Pac (Full Gear 2019)
  • +125: Cody def. Lance Archer (DoN 2020)
  • +135: Cody def. Anthony Ogogo (DoN 2021)
  • +140: Hikaru Shida def. Nyla Rose (DoN 2020)
  • +150: Kip Sabian def. Sammy Guevera (DoN 2019)
  • +160: Pac def. Kenny Omega (All Out 2019)
  • +165: The Young Bucks def. the Luchas Bros (DoN 2019)
  • +170: Kenny Omega & Adam Page def. The Young Bucks (Revolution 2020)
  • +175: Lance Archer wins Casino Battle Royale (All Out 2020)
  • +190: Cody def. Shawn Spears (All Out 2019)

Here is every AEW betting upset +200 and above:

#5: +225 – Scorpio Sky wins Face of the Revolution Ladder Match

(Revolution 2021)

Cody was the favourite at +175. Scorpio Sky was tied with the “Mystery Participant”, who would turn out to be Ethan Page at +225 odds as the 2nd favourite.

In hindsight – this was actually a very obvious one. Scorpio was on the Dynamite just preceding this on commentary and was very heelish. It was clear a turn was underway and also a potential push based on the focus they gave him.

Scorpio won after attacking Cody with a chair.

#4: +275 – Brian Cage wins Casino Ladder Match

(Double or Nothing 2020)

Darby Allin was the favourite in this one at +175 odds.

This one actually wasn’t Brian Cage as the +275 second favourite but the “mystery participant”.

It was neat to see the “mystery participant” winning a match like this as it opens up that happening in future matches.

Moxley was the champion at the time, so it was a bit of a surprise with people thinking Darby would win to make a face vs face match. Especially with Darby as a rising star and Mox being Mox. Booking wise, it just didn’t make the most sense.

Both Darby and Scorpio were the only two to have video packages really hyping them going into the ladder match so that was probably some of the reasoning that Darby was the favourite. Plus even back then, he had future main eventer and world champion all over him.

AEW pulled off the surprise with the debuting Brian Cage crushing everyone to win the match,

#3: +300 – Team Dustin def Dark Order

(All Out 2020)

With Brodie Lee as the leader of the Dark Order, and them being an actual stable, many expected them to pull off the victory.

AEW had other plans as the team of Dustin Rhodes, QT Marshall, Matt Cardona and Scorpio Sky were able to pull off the victory.

When I wrote about this one, I actually tipped Team Dustin due to the potential Scorpio Sky push. I felt this would be a good spot to showcase him and have him go over.

His team won although he didn’t get the pin. This ended being the beginning of the Colt Cabana storyline and Brodie revealing his true colours to him.

#2: +500 – Adam Page wins Casino Battle Royale

(Double or Nothing 2019)

So I wasn’t exactly sure where to put this one as there was a little twist on the day of the show.

All week long, Adam Page was the favourite to win the inaugural Casino Battle Royal at +250 odds.

Then the morning of the PPV, the online sportsbooks added Jon Moxley to the betting odds. Moxley slotted in at a +600 2nd favourite along with MJF.

Within an hour, money came in fast and furious on Moxley with many expecting him to make his debut at the show, win the Battle Royale, and face the winner of Jericho vs Omega which was happening later.

This pushed Moxley to a heavy favourite and Adam Page dropped to +500 odds a few hours before the show began. As it is Mox DID debut on the show but it was after the main event was over. Page won the Battle Royale, defeating 2nd favourite MJF last.

#1: +600 – Jungle Boy wins Casino Battle Royal

(Double or Nothing 2021)


Christian had recently joined the company, had got into an altercation with Kenny Omega and appeared to be the favourite to win the title shot.

If you look at the Bleacher Report predictions for this show, 5 of the 8 picked Christian to win it. (With some lunatic picking Samoa Joe)

I correctly tipped Jungle Boy to pull off the upset here at this price. It was a case of AEW putting over the young talent, as opposed to the old veteran.

What a crazy concept.

It was also smart booking in regards to reaction as many fans just weren’t too happy at a veteran like Christian coming in and getting immediately pushed into the title picture.

That was a bit too “TNA Impact” for most AEW fan’s liking.


While we aren’t listing it as it wasn’t on a PPV – I did want to note that the third biggest upset in AEW history was at Fyter Fest 2020, when The Butcher and the Blade defeated The Young Bucks.



Current Wrestling Betting Odds:

Event:Match:Where To Bet:
NJPWG1 ClimaxBetOnline
Extreme RulesBecky Lynch -250 Bianca Belair +250BetOnline
Extreme RulesBobby Lashley -600 Randy Orton +350BetOnline
Extreme RulesCharlotte Flair -150 Alexa Bliss +110BetOnline
Extreme RulesDamien Priest -400 Sheamus +250BetOnline
Extreme RulesRoman Reigns -625 Finn Balor +350BetOnline
Note: Not all bets may be available at BetOnline but they are only choice for Americans.