A List of Every Summerslam Betting Upset

avatar Written By Graeme on July 27, 2021  

It’s one of the WWE Big 4 PPVs, and WWE Summerslam is also one of the Big 4 in terms of big betting upsets.

WWE Summerslam has seen various upsets over the years throughout the card.

A large majority of the upsets are usually small upsets odds-wise below +200, but there have been some nice and big wins over the years.

In this article, I list every single Summerslam betting upset since odds were available (2014 onwards) and go into detail on the upsets that are +200 or above.

Here are the betting upsets below +200 – odds are from a day before the PPV, prior to the smart money coming in:

  • +100 Odds: The New Day defeated The Bludgeon Brothers (2018)
  • +100 Odds: Neville defeated Akira Tozawa (2017)
  • +105 Odds: Cedric Alexander defeated Drew Gulak (2018)
  • +120 Odds: Samoa Joe defeated AJ Styles (2018)
  • +125 Odds: Drew McIntyre defeated Randy Orton (2020)
  • +125 Odds: The Usos defeated The New Day (2017)
  • +125 Odds: Seth Rollins defeated Brock Lesnar (2019)
  • +150 Odds: Dolph Ziggler defeated Rusev (2015)
  • +150 Odds: Charlotte defeated Rhea Ripley & Nikki A.S.H. (2021)
  • +160 Odds: AJ Styles defeated John Cena (2016)
  • +160 Odds: The Miz defeated Apollo Crews (2016)
  • +170 Odds: The Mysterios defeat Judgment Day (2022)
  • +175 Odds: The New Day defeated Anderson/Gallows (2016)
  • +175 Odds: Natalya defeated Naomi (2017)
  • +175 Odds: Randy Orton defeated Rusev (2017)
  • +185 Odds: Charlotte defeated Becky Lynch & Carmella (2018)

And now every betting upset above +200:

#7: +205. Rusev defeats Jack Swagger (2014)

One of the more notable PPVs for betting upsets with three in this top list. The odds for this one surprised me at the time and still do surprise me all these years later. Here’s what I wrote back then:

This one made us stop and think for a second. We expected Rusev to be a huge favourite and are slightly concerned that this is one where the bookies know. But we just can’t see it. WWE seems to be sticking the course with Rusev. Bet the absolute hell out of Rusev.

This was a flag match and I guess that’s why Swagger was favourite; they expected a USA! USA! USA! style moment where Swagger wins. WWE were also building Swagger up again and many felt a flag match was fine for Rusev to lose as it isn’t a real “loss”. I can see the arguments, but this just seems like one where the sportsbooks got it completely wrong.

#7: +210. Paige defeats AJ Lee (2014)

The feud between these two began at Wrestlemania that year, when Paige showed up to congratulate AJ, got slapped, then won an impromptu title match. AJ then regained it in an impromptu match. The two seemed to be friends then Paige turned on AJ, setting up this match.

It happened to be Paige’s 22nd birthday. A lot of people didn’t expect the title to flip again so suddenly, but that’s exactly what WWE did as Paige won here. Looking back at my notes, it was basically “women’s division is a coinflip; bet the underdog”. There was never really any long-term planning and the title flipped like a hot potato, so it was a fairly easy bet to make.

#6: +220. Cody Rhodes defeats Damien Sandow (2013)

This whole feud began over the Money in the Bank briefcase, with Sandow turning on Cody to win the briefcase.

With Sandow having recently won the briefcase, many expected him to go over here and be protected prior to actually cashing in the briefcase and winning that belt. That seems to be the standing theory and reason that Sandow was such a heavy favourite.

It’s a good example of “what would you do” and “what does WWE do”. With WWE they look at something like the briefcase as immunity; it doesn’t matter what happens to you as when you cash it in, it can change the whole trajectory of your career.

I said as much in my betting tips at the time:

If the briefcase was somehow on the line I would think that Sandow would be the favorite here, but since it’s not I’m going with Cody. He needs to win here to keep his strong momentum going and Sandow can handle the loss. Bet Cody Rhodes.

So WWE gave Cody the much-needed win here instead.

#5: +290. Dolph Ziggler defeats The Miz (2014)

Dolph defeated The Miz to win the WWE Intercontinental Championship. This is a funny one to look back on – back in 2014, Ziggler was loved by the internet and the smarks. He was over big time with the fanbase, but could never get a push by the WWE. If you look back at any predictions during that time, you’ll see most people did not expect this.

The Miz had recently won the title so that was a big factor in it.

I ended up tipping it with some real-life reasons – the WWE network had launched that year, and the all-important network numbers were going to be revealed soon. My theory was that they would hotshot the title on Ziggler to appease the internet fans.

Whether that was the reason for it or not – Ziggler did win, only to lose the title at Night of Champions a week or so after the Network numbers. Although he did regain it the next night on RAW. Then lost it again a few weeks later. Then won it again a few weeks after that. Rinse, wash, repeat.

#4: +325. Jinder Mahal defeats Shinsuke Nakamura (2017)

This one was for the WWE Championship, and there was some interesting backstory to it. The apparent plan was WWE doing a big tour or show in India, and thus they wanted Jinder to be champion.

Then the event appeared to be canceled (it ended up taking place in December) so everyone expected WWE to right the ship, and give Nakamura the belt. He became the heavy favourite to win.

Jinder ended up retaining. Funnily enough, the storyline of him being champion for the India event ended up being nothing after all; he lost the title belt prior to the December show and then proceeded to be defeated by Triple H in front of his entire country.

#3: +400. Bianca Belair defeats Asuka & Charlotte (2023)

This one came off as quite the surprise initially, as the -160 Asuka lost her title. For once, the upset didn’t occur due to Charlotte Flair.

Bianca won in a shock – although it all made sense seconds after.

Iyo Sky immediately came in and cashed her Money in the Bank briefcase to take the title.

#2: +550. JeriKO defeats Enzo & Big Cass (2016)

No one expected the thrown-together team of Chris Jericho and Kevin Owens to overcome the odds here. Many people also fantasy-booked Anderson/Gallows winning the titles at the same PPV, and thus a feud with Enzo and Big Cass following Summerslam.

The fact that it was in Brooklyn as well made many think that Enzo & Big Cass would win for the big celebration, with Enzo being from New Jersey and Cass from New York. Of course, we should all know by now that wrestling in your hometown in WWE usually results in a job.

#1: +700. Charlotte defeats Sasha Banks (2016)

I say always bet on Charlotte for a reason although this one was a bit different. Here is what I wrote back in 2016:

Incredible price for Charlotte and just dripping of value. Just trust me on this one. 5 units. This is where having accounts at all the different sportsbooks works.

This was not the original plan of course. Unfortunately, Sasha Banks suffered a severe injury to her back so they had to do the title switch so she could take some time off.

That information was not made publicly available prior to the PPV, hence the odds. Now I’m not saying I had any sort of inside information or anything like that – but if I tell you to trust me – it’s in your best interests to do so.

This was a notable one though where real-life factors caused the betting upset. Banks ended up not requiring surgery after all, and her time off was much less than expected. Banks regained the title on October 3rd from Charlotte.

Current Wrestling Betting Odds:

Event:Match:Where To Bet:
WrestlemaniaAll the matchesBetOnline
Elimination ChamberAll the matchesBetOnline
AEW RevolutionBoth RumblesBetOnline